When GTA 5 launched in September 2013, it made $800 million on day one and $1 billion in three days. It has since sold over 200 million copies. Those numbers seemed untouchable.
GTA 6 is expected to obliterate them.
The Predictions Are Staggering
Gaming-focused venture capital firm Konvoy projects GTA 6 will generate $7.6 billion in revenue within its first 60 days. Their breakdown:
- $800 million in pre-orders before the game even launches (10 million pre-orders expected)
- $2 billion on day one alone — roughly 25 million copies at ~$80 average unit price
- 85 million copies shipped within the first two months
DFC Intelligence goes even further, predicting GTA 6 will make over $1 billion in pre-orders alone — meaning it would break GTA 5’s 3-day record before anyone even plays it.
More conservative estimates still paint an extraordinary picture. Financial analysts project $3.2 billion in the first 12 months, while Screen Rant cites projections of up to $6 billion in year one.
Not Everyone Is Convinced
It’s worth noting that Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research at Niko Partners, has called Konvoy’s $7.6 billion projection “an aggressive forecast” that “could be unrealistic, even for a game like GTA 6.” The truth likely falls somewhere between the conservative and bullish estimates — but either way, records will fall.
What Take-Two Is Saying
Take-Two isn’t being subtle. CEO Strauss Zelnick has stated that GTA 6 “will establish a new financial baseline for our business” and expects fiscal year 2027 (the launch year) to deliver “record levels of net bookings.” The company has also told CNBC that GTA 6 will “probably energize console sales,” as millions of players who haven’t yet upgraded to current-gen will buy a PS5 or Xbox specifically for this game.
Marketing data firm Circana predicts GTA 6 will help fuel a record-breaking year for the entire gaming industry, projecting total revenue of $62.8 billion for 2026.
Why This Time Is Different
Several factors make GTA 6’s launch unprecedented:
- The installed base is massive — PS5 and Xbox Series X|S combined have sold far more units than PS3 and Xbox 360 had when GTA 5 launched
- GTA Online’s sustained success has kept the franchise culturally relevant for over a decade
- Rising game prices — at $70-80 per copy, each sale generates more revenue than GTA 5’s $60 launch price
- Digital distribution — a much higher percentage of sales will be digital, meaning higher margins for Take-Two
Whether it hits $3 billion or $7 billion, GTA 6 is going to be the biggest entertainment launch in history. For our comprehensive coverage, check out our GTA 6 guide hub, including our price and value breakdown and GTA 6 vs GTA 5 comparison.
